GOP to lose 7-30 House Seats?

According to this Washington Post story, some Republican campaign officials expect to lose at least 7 and up to 30 seats in the House.

Most notably in the story, 25 seats are a toss up, and 9 are leaning Democratic already.

The media is in high gear. We hear approval ratings several times daily -all negative for the GOP; North Korea's nuke test being blamed on the Bush administration's "negligence;" the Foley scandal squeezed to the last drop; and negative reports on the economy -despite its current performance.

I will concede that the war in Iraq is most definitely not going as well as reasonably hoped for. Perhaps the most unsettling is the fact that a victorious and successful withdrawal is nowhere in sight. Sure we can say 3-5 years, and it sounds like things have a decent chance of improving within that time, but that is justifiably doubtful.

I have doubts that the GOP will lose more than 5 seats. And I am certain they will not lose 15 -their majority. Polls typically and inaccurately favor the Democrats up to a month prior to elections. If they were accurate we would've hailed to Chief Gore in 2000, and Kerry might have been president in '04.

The polls we need to look at are among state-wide likely voters. For example, our general opinion of Congress is very negative, but opinion of our own congressman is usually much better. For that reason, nation wide polls on a congressional election is misleading. Secondly, both parties lose seats, and such reporting implying Democrats have a stronghold on all of their seats is wrong. Pending a bombshell, the GOP may give a few to the Democrats, but they won't lose the majority.